Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 January 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 536 (S12, L=74), produced a C1 flare at 14/1602 UTC. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 537 may produce C-class and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions. Activity may increase to active to minor storm conditions on 17 January due to increased solar wind speeds from a coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jan 121
  Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan  125/130/135
  90 Day Mean        14 Jan 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  014/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  010/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  010/010-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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