Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 January 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 536 (S12W18)
produced several low level C-class flares during the period.
Penumbral coverage continues to decrease as this region begins to
exit the west solar limb. Region 537 (N05W16) produced a C1/Sf
flare at 0609Z. The beta-gamma/delta magnetic structure remains
intact. Region 540 (S11E68) continues to rotate into view from the
solar east limb. A trailing cluster of spots became visible late in
the period and detailed analysis is still pending further rotation
of the region onto the disk. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The
elevated conditions are believed to be due to a transient passage
that occurred at the ACE spacecraft near 0900Z. The M-class
activity from early on 09 January may have been the source for this
event. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 118 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 125/130/135 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 005/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 008/010-010/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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