Viewing archive of Monday, 9 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region
554 (S08E52) produced numerous B and C-class flares today. Ten
C-class flares were recorded with the largest being a C9 x-ray event
that occurred at 09/1102Z. LASCO imagery has shown little, if any
associated CME signatures during the past 24 hours of activity from
this region. Magnetic analysis depicts a delta configuration within
the dominant intermediate spot. Region 551 (S06W27) did not manage
any flare production during the interval, although surging and point
brightenings were observed throughout the period. The gamma
structures in the central and trailing portions of the sunspot group
remain intact. Region 555 (S14E72) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 551 and 554 both have the potential
to produce M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. 12 February may
experience active conditions due to a solar sector boundary
crossing, preceding an anticipated recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 118
Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 09 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 002/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 004/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 006/010-008/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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