Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 March 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 567 (S14W66) has undergone a reduction in both magnetic complexity and size since yesterday. It is now only 80 millionths of the solar disk, and has been reclassified a Beta magnetic configuration. Region 570 (S14E59) is now in full view, and has reached a size of 570 millionths. Magnetic classification remains Beta for the region. However, there continues to be a significant distance between the leading and trailing sunspots. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low with a chance for moderate. Region 570, and to a lesser degree 567, continue to have a fair potential for an M-class flare event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the 8th. The field is expected to then jump to mostly unsettled with isolated periods of active levels during the 9th and 10th. A high-speed solar wind stream is approaching, and is expected to influence the Earth's magnetic field beginning late on the 9th.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
Class M50%50%50%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Mar 106
  Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        07 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Mar  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  005/008-012/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm01%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%45%40%
Minor storm05%30%30%
Major-severe storm01%10%05%

All times in UTC

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