Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 March 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels today. Region 570 (S13E70) produced an M1 x-ray flare at 06/1217Z. Multiple lesser C-class flares were also observed throughout the day. A cluster of trailing sunspots became visible early in the period. There is a significant distance between the lead and trailing sunspots (over 15 heliospheric degrees) although initial magnetic analysis suggest that all features associated to plague field are one region. Region 567 (S12W55) produced two low level C-class flares early in the period. The sunspot coverage increased since yesterday although the weak delta complex separated into two distinct sunspots today, indicating some decay in magnetic field structure. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through 7 and 8 March. The onset of an intense solar sector boundary crossing is anticipated on 9 March, which precedes a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. Active to minor storm conditions are expected with the onset.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
Class M50%50%50%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Mar 105
  Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        06 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  004/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Mar  004/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  005/008-005/008-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm01%01%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%45%
Minor storm05%05%30%
Major-severe storm01%01%15%

All times in UTC

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