Viewing archive of Friday, 5 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. New Region 570
(S13E84) produced several C-class flares today, the largest was a C6
x-ray event that occurred at 05/0912Z. Currently, a large
asymmetrical sunspot has emerged onto the visible disk and further
analysis of this region is pending. Region 567 (S12W42) underwent
no significant changes today and flare production was limited to
several B-class events. The largest was a B9 x-ray flare that
occurred at 05/0103Z. LASCO imagery does not depict any significant
CME activity associated with today's events. The remainder of the
disk was fairly quiescent today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 567 exhibits the magnetic complexity
to produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| Class M | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 107 Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 05 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 004/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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