Viewing archive of Monday, 8 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Solar activity has been low. Region 570 (S14E46)
produced a C2.3 flare at 08/2011 UTC. This region exhibited slight
growth over the past 24 hours, to an area of 750 millionths. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 570 has the potential to produce C- and
isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 9 March, with increasing
activity to active and isolated minor storm conditions on 10 and 11
March. Increased activity is likely as Earth's magnetic field comes
under the influence of a high speed solar wind stream originating
from a coronal hole in geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Mar 108 Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 08 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 012/015-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnReykjavik
Trondheim
Sundsvall, Umeå
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