Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity has been low. Region 570 (S14E34) has
produced numerous B- and C-class flares, including a C1.3/Sf at
09/0648 UTC. No significant development was observed from regions
on the visible disk, and no new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 570 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels.
Increased activity is most likely due to the effects of a
co-rotating interaction region interacting with Earth's magnetic
field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active, with occassional minor storm
conditions from the effects of high speed solar wind as a coronal
hole moves into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Mar 109 Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 09 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 002/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 015/020-015/020-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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