Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Monday, 26 January 2004

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to two C-class events during the past 24 hours. The first was a C6 at 25/2241 UTC which had the greatest contribution from a flare in Region 543 (S17W89), although Region 542 (N06W82) flared at the same time and also contributed to the total flux. The second was a C1 at 0610 UTC from Region 542. All three of the currently spotted regions on the disk (542, 543, and 544 at N03W76) will be rotating around the west limb in the next 24 hours. A CME was observed by LASCO off the southeast limb, but the absence of disk activity strongly suggests a backside source for the event.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There may be a gradual rise in background levels over the next three days with the return of old Region 536 (latitude S11) on 28 January.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours (27 January). An increase to unsettled to active is expected on the 28th due to possible effects from a favorably positioned, positive polarity coronal hole. Conditions should return to mostly unsettled by the third day (29 January).

III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan

Class M	05%	05%	05%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       26 Jan 098
  Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan  100/105/110
  90 Day Mean        26 Jan 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  017/033
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jan  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  010/015-015/020-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	25%	30%	25%
Minor storm	15%	20%	15%
Major-severe storm	05%	10%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	30%	35%	30%
Minor storm	20%	25%	20%
Major-severe storm	05%	15%	05%

All times in UTC

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