Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity was at very low levels today. Newly
numbered Region 562 (S11E73) and spotless Region 556 (N15W93)
produced multiple low level B-class flares today. LASCO imagery
depicts faint CME activity which is believed to have been from a
source region beyond the solar southeast limb. The remainder of the
active regions were quiescent throughout the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible on 22 February due to a recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 096 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 008/010-008/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 06% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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