Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Monday, 29 March 2004

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 582 (N14E18) produced several C-class flares today. The largest was a C5/Sf at 1551 UTC. The region dominates the solar disk in size and complexity and became more active during the past 24 hours. The region appears to be growing slowly. The only other region producing flares was 587 (S12E63) which managed to produce two B-class events. All the other regions on the disk were quiet and stable. A CME was observed by LASCO off the southwest limb around 0040 UTC, but the lack of corresponding disk signatures suggests that the source was on the back side.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be mostly low. There is a chance, however, for an isolated M-class flare from Region 582 during the next three days (30 March - 1 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, although there was one active period from 0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind data show a declining high speed stream with velocities slowly decreasing over the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field shows weak fluctuations in Bz, ranging from -3 nT to +3 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was high during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a slight chance for an active period during the next 24 hours (30 March). Conditions should decline to quiet to unsettled for the second and third days (31 March - 1 April) as the solar wind returns to nominal conditions.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr

Class M	35%	35%	35%
Class X	05%	05%	05%
Proton	05%	05%	05%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       29 Mar 129
  Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr  130/130/135
  90 Day Mean        29 Mar 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  012/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Mar  012/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  012/012-010/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	30%	25%	20%
Minor storm	20%	15%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	30%	25%	20%
Minor storm	25%	20%	15%
Major-severe storm	10%	05%	05%

All times in UTC

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The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (15.36nT), the direction is North (9.86nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-51nT)

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