Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 May 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 601 (S09W77)
produced several low B-class flares. No significant development was
observed in regions on the visible disk. New Region 605 (S12W02) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 601 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm conditions
on days one and two (5-6 May) as a coronal hole high speed wind
stream moves into geoeffective position. Activity should subside to
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (7 May).
III. Event Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 087 Predicted 05 May-07 May 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 04 May 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 018/020-015/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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