Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 May 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares
were observed in Regions 603 (S16W90) and 605 (S12W16). Region 605
continues in a slow growth phase and currently exhibits minor
magnetic complexity. No other significant activity was noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 605 has potential for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A high speed coronal hole
stream became geoeffective late in the period. Solar wind speed
increased from near 450 km/s to approximately 580 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels. A minor disturbance
associated with a high speed coronal hole stream will likely result
in unsettled to active periods through 6 May. Predominantly quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on 7 and 8 May.
III. Event Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 089 Predicted 06 May-08 May 090/095/095 90 Day Mean 05 May 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 015/015-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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