Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 588 (S16W13) produced a
C7/Sf flare at 08/1019Z. This event had an associated tenflare (190
sfu) and a full halo CME on LASCO imagery. No significant changes
were observed in Region 588, which maintains a reverse polarity
beta magnetic configuration. Coronal mass ejections were also
observed to originate from behind the northwest limb. The first of
these CMEs occurred at 08/0148Z and had an associated Type II radio
sweep (709 km/s). A long duration x-ray enhancement accompanied the
second CME at around 08/1900Z. No other significant changes or
activity were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Region 588 is expected to produce occasional C-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with isolated minor
storm periods during local nighttime hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storming. There has been no
obvious transient passage at ACE yet from the full halo CME observed
on LASCO imagery on 6 April. Occasional minor storm periods are
expected in the next 24 hours from this CME. Another full halo CME
was observed today and is expected to produce active to minor storm
periods on 11 April.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 094 Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 08 Apr 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 022/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 020/030-015/020-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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