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Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 April 2004

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 588 (S16W13) produced a C7/Sf flare at 08/1019Z. This event had an associated tenflare (190 sfu) and a full halo CME on LASCO imagery. No significant changes were observed in Region 588, which maintains a reverse polarity beta magnetic configuration. Coronal mass ejections were also observed to originate from behind the northwest limb. The first of these CMEs occurred at 08/0148Z and had an associated Type II radio sweep (709 km/s). A long duration x-ray enhancement accompanied the second CME at around 08/1900Z. No other significant changes or activity were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Region 588 is expected to produce occasional C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods during local nighttime hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storming. There has been no obvious transient passage at ACE yet from the full halo CME observed on LASCO imagery on 6 April. Occasional minor storm periods are expected in the next 24 hours from this CME. Another full halo CME was observed today and is expected to produce active to minor storm periods on 11 April.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
Class M15%15%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Apr 094
  Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        08 Apr 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Apr  022/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  020/030-015/020-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%40%
Minor storm30%20%30%
Major-severe storm15%10%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%40%45%
Minor storm35%30%35%
Major-severe storm20%15%20%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Saskatoon, SK, Yellowknife, NT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (674.3 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-60nT)

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