Viewing archive of Friday, 12 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 570 (S14W05) produced an
impulsive C3/Sf at 12/0237Z with minor centimetric radio bursts. The
large leading sunspot cluster in this region began to fragment this
period and the trailing spots have decayed considerably; however, a
weak delta configuration is still evident. A new bipolar sunspot
group formed north and center on the disk and was numbered as Region
572 (N19W05). New Region 573 (S14E71) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Occasional C-class activity is expected from Region
570 with a slight chance of an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A high
speed stream associated with a large transequatorial coronal hole
is responsible for the current disturbance. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active with isolated minor storm
periods possible. The coronal hole high speed stream is expected to
continue through 13 March. Mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated
active periods are expected on 14 and 15 March as the high speed
stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 108 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 017/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 022/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 015/020-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, SodankyläKirkenes, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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