Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Solar activity has been low. Region 570 (S13E07)
produced minor flare activity, including a C1.3/Sf at 11/0215 UTC.
Region 570 maintained its size, but increased in magnetic complexity
to a beta-gamma-delta configuration. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 570 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. Earth's magnetic field continues to be under the
influence of a geoeffective coronal hole with associated high speed
solar wind. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions, with isolated
minor storming possible, on 12-13 March. Activity should decrease
on 14 March as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 113 Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 110/110/100 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 036/040 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 020/045 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 018/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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