Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 June 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Minor B-class activity was observed in Region 618 (S08W90) as it rotated around the west limb. Region 621 (S16E25) exhibits some minor magnetic complexity, but activity was limited to occasional brightness fluctuations and weak surging. New Regions 623 (N07W23) and 624 (S09E64) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 621.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled to active. This weak disturbance is in response to an elevated solar wind stream (approximately 550 km/s) from a large transequatorial coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods possible at high latitudes. Elevated solar wind speed from a coronal hole will prolong this weak disturbance for much of the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
Class M05%05%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jun 090
  Predicted   02 Jun-04 Jun  090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        01 Jun 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 May  011/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jun  015/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun  015/015-015/018-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%45%40%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%15%10%

All times in UTC

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