Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 May 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Newly assigned Region 618 (S10E69) produced all of today's three C-class flares. The other sunspot regions on the disk were quiet and stable. A filament in the northeast quadrant erupted at 0136 UTC and was associated with a CME off the northeast solar limb. The angular width of the CME was narrow and the transient does not appear to be directed towards Earth.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Most of the activity is expected to occur in Region 618.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. However, there was a period of minor storm levels from 0900-1200 UTC. Solar wind data at ACE showed a steady increase in solar wind velocity from initial values around 380 km/s up to about 500 km/s by forecast issue time. Elevated solar wind temperature and wave patterns in the magnetic field data suggest that the enhancement may originate from a coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled but with a fair chance for some isolated active periods during the next two days (21-22 May). A decline to quiet to unsettled is expected around mid-day on the third day (23 May).
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 May 105
  Predicted   21 May-23 May  105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        20 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 May  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  012/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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