Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 May 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Two small C-class flares occurred in an unnumbered region rotating onto the disk near SE10. Regions currently on the visible disk have been relatively quiet with only a few B-class flares observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Sunspots associated with the new region at the southeast limb are expected to rotate into view within the next 24 hours. B and C-class flares are most likely to occur in this new region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. An isolated active period occurred at some locations at 19/1500-1800 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about May 30 to June 2, 2004. During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere with spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind plasma, magnetic field, and particle data.
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 May 109
  Predicted   20 May-22 May  110/110/100
  90 Day Mean        19 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 May  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  008/015-008/010-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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