Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 May 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Several small flares occurred
throughout the day. The largest was a C3 at 18/0827 UTC in Region
615 (N17E38). Small flares also occurred in Regions 612 (N10W59),
614 (S06W90), and 617 (S11W04). Region 609 (S03W46) continued to
decay but did not produce any flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Small B and C-class flares are possible from several areas on the
disk, including Regions 609, 612, 615, and 617.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit
will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about May 30 to June
2, 2004. During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere
with spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind
plasma, magnetic field, and particle data.
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 May 108 Predicted 19 May-21 May 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 18 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 008/010-008/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Fairbanks, AKCurrent data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
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