Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 May 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several small flares occurred throughout the day. The largest was a C3 at 18/0827 UTC in Region 615 (N17E38). Small flares also occurred in Regions 612 (N10W59), 614 (S06W90), and 617 (S11W04). Region 609 (S03W46) continued to decay but did not produce any flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Small B and C-class flares are possible from several areas on the disk, including Regions 609, 612, 615, and 617.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about May 30 to June 2, 2004. During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere with spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind plasma, magnetic field, and particle data.
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 May 108
  Predicted   19 May-21 May  105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        18 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 May  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  008/010-008/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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