Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 May 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 618 (S10E41) produced an M2/Sf at 21/2352 UTC, as well as several C-class events. The region has continued to grow and has formed a delta configuration as leader penumbral spots of opposite polarity have consolidated. Region 615 (N18W13) managed to produce a C1 event at 21/2220 UTC but was otherwise quiet and stable. Region 617 (S10W60) exhibited some minor surge activity but did not manage to produce any flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected be mostly low, but there is a fair chance for additional, isolated M-class activity from Region 618.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled with the exception of an active period from 0600-0900 UTC. Solar wind speeds continue to be elevated in the 450-500 km/s range.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours (23 May), but should transition to mostly quiet as the high speed solar wind is expected to decline gradually late on the 23rd through the 24th. Conditions should be mostly quiet with occasional periods of unsettled levels for the 2nd and 3rd days (24-25 May).
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 May 102
  Predicted   23 May-25 May  100/100/095
  90 Day Mean        22 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  006/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 May  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  010/012-005/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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