Viewing archive of Friday, 18 June 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. There were two C-class flares during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 2234 UTC from spotless plage near S08E55 and a C1 at 1626 UTC from Region 635 (S12E25). Emerging flux was observed in the trailer portion of 635 and this has led to the formation of a delta spot. Region 634 (N12E07) was mostly unchanged and was relatively stable during the past 24 hours. A small, 10 degree filament near S15E09 disappeared, but there was no evidence for a coronal mass ejection in the SOHO/LASCO imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event sometime during the next three days given the current growth trend and increased complexity in Region 635.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
Class M45%45%45%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jun 108
  Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun  110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        18 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  010/012-010/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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