Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Monday, 24 May 2004

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 618 (S10E13) produced the largest flare of the period, a C4 x-ray event that occurred at 24/1104Z. There was a continued growth in sunspot area and the total spot count today. A continued emergence of flux now shows several delta structures near region center in this magnetic beta-gamma-delta group. The remaining active regions were quiescent today. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Due to continued growth in magnetic complexity, Region 618 has the potential of producing M-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The high speed solar wind stream continues to persist while solar wind speeds were exceeding 500 km/s late in the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible through 25 May as the geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream begins to wane. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about May 30 to June 2, 2004. During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere with spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind plasma, magnetic field, and particle data.

III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May

Class M	50%	50%	50%
Class X	10%	10%	10%
Proton	05%	05%	05%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       24 May 105
  Predicted   25 May-27 May  105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        24 May 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 May  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  007/010-007/010-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	20%
Minor storm	05%	05%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	20%	20%	20%
Minor storm	10%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

All times in UTC

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The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (506.5 km/sec.)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (12.94nT), the direction is North (1.75nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-84nT)

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