Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 June 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Two C1 flares occurred, at 12/1841 UTC and 12/1943 UTC, in a new unnumbered region rotating onto the disk near NE12. Other disk regions were quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. A C-class flare is possible in Region 631 (S10E02) or in the new Region rotating onto the disk near NE12. Sunspots associated with the new active region are expected to rotate into view by tomorrow.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jun 088
  Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        12 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  014/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jun  010/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  010/010-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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