Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 June 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jun 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. New Region 634 (N12E73) produced an M1 flare at 13/1156 UTC as well as smaller B and C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The region is rotating into view as a small D-type sunspot group. Another new active region is rotating onto the disk near southeast 08. Sunspots are not yet visible but GOES SXI has observed B-class flares from this area. Other disk regions were quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Another small M-class flare is possible in Region 634.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled becoming unsettled to active under the influence of a high-speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jun 095
  Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun  100/105/110
  90 Day Mean        13 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jun  008/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  010/010-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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