Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 August 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. Region 654 (N08W41) produced several lower level B-class flares today with continued decay to the groups total spot area. Region 655 (S09E44) also produced lesser B-class flares and showed a slight increase in spot cluster area measurements. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 655 has the potential to produce isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A shock passage was observed by the ACE spacecraft at approximately 01/0130Z. This transient is believed to be the result of the long duration C2 x-ray flare that peaked at 29/1304Z from Region 652 while it was exiting the west limb. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field went south for a brief period of time allowing for observed active periods between 01/0130 and 0300Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased to high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Aug 083
  Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug  080/085/085
  90 Day Mean        01 Aug 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Aug  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  005/008-005/008-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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