Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 August 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity remained at very low levels. Flare production was limited to very minor impulsive B-class event activity again today. Region 663 (N10W41) showed little change during the period and remains a magnetically simplistic beta complex. Region 664 (S11W73) went unchanged and continues to exhibit Hsx alpha spot group characteristics. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels. The active spotted regions are magnetically simple with limited potential for significant flare production being evident.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. There was an isolated active period that occurred between 28/0600 and 0900Z in response to southward Bz oscillations in the interplanetary magnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Aug 087
  Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug  085/085/090
  90 Day Mean        28 Aug 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  004/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Aug  006/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  004/008-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
COMMENTS: The ACE spacecraft orbit will bring ACE to its closest approach with the Sun on August 30, 2004. During that time possible solar radio noise may interfere with spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of real time solar wind plasma, magnetic field, and particle data.

All times in UTC

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