Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
occasional C-class flares from Region 656 (S12E18). Although the
region is still growing the rate of growth has decreased
significantly and the rate of flare activity has also decreased. The
region continues to have a delta magnetic class but shearing in the
region appears to have decreased slightly. New Region 659 (N18E59)
was assigned today and is a small, stable H-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare
from Region 656. There may be an increase in background and activity
levels on 12 August with the return of old Region 652 (N08, L=348)
which produced numerous M-class events on its previous disk transit.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with a minor
storm interval at some locations from 1500-1800 UTC. Solar wind
observations show an increase of velocity and temperature, and a
decrease of density, consistent with the onset of a high-speed
coronal hole solar wind stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for
the next three days (11-13 August).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 121 Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 125/130/135 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 012/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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