Viewing archive of Monday, 6 September 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted of a few B-class flares, mostly from Region 667 (S11E09). New Region 671 (S10W29) emerged on the disk today and is a small, D-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Regions 667, 669 (S07E19), and 671 have the potential for producing isolated C-class events during the next three days (07-09 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. There was one active period from 0900-1200 UTC. Solar wind data indicate a small increase in speed during the past 24 hours, and the interplanetary magnetic field component Bz is fluctuating between +6 and -6 nT. These signatures are suggestive of a weak coronal hole wind stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days (07-09 September).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Sep 107
  Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep  110/110/115
  90 Day Mean        06 Sep 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Sep  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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