Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 August 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 656 (S14W77) produced several major flares over the period. The largest flare was an M2.4 flare at 17/1937 UTC. Region 656 decayed slightly as it approached the west limb. A large filament erupted in the southeast quadrant of the solar disk at 0500 UTC, observed on SOHO/EIT imagery. Shortly thereafter a CME was observed emerging from the southeast limb at 0630 UTC on LASCO imagery. The CME was not directed towards Earth. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 656 may still produce major flare activity before it crosses the west limb in the next day.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled all three days. Isolated active conditions are possible on day three (20 Aug) from the minor effects of a small coronal hole that will reach geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
Class M75%50%25%
Class X20%10%01%
Proton10%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Aug 135
  Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug  125/115/115
  90 Day Mean        17 Aug 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Aug  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  008/008-005/008-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%35%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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