Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 August 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 656 (S15,L=87)
produced significant flare activity, including an X1.8/Sf at 18/1740
UTC. Region 661 (N09E06) exhibited gradual growth in size over the
period, and produced several C-class flares. New Region 662
(N12E28) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 661 may produce C- or M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled all three days. Isolated active
conditions are possible on days two and three (20-21 Aug) from minor
effects of a small coronal hole that will reach geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 140 Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 18 Aug 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 008/010-008/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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