Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 September 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 14 2300 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 672 (N05E10) produced several C-class flares and a long-duration M1.5/1f at 0930 UTC. A Type II radio sweep (1018 km/s) and a Type IV sweep was observed in association with the M flare. An associated CME most likely occurred, but could not be confirmed due to a LASCO data gap. Surging and plage fluctuations were observed in Region 672, which is now in a beta-delta magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 672 is expected to produce C- class flares, and may produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active. Lingering effects of the CME which arrived on 13 September led to persistent active conditions early in the period. The greater than 10 MeV protons have been steadily delining since reaching a maximum of 273 pfu at 14/0005 UTC, and are currently at 17 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 15 September as the effects of the current disturbance subside. A CME originating from the M1.5 flare observed today may interact with Earth's geomagnetic field beginning midday on 16 September, and lasting through 17 September. Predominantly active conditions, with isolated minor or major storming, is likely on 16-17 September as a result of this CME arrival. The greater than 10 MeV Proton levels may increase as well in association with a CME shock arrival.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton99%10%10%
PCAFYellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Sep 115
  Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep  115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        14 Sep 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Sep  020/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  015/015-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%40%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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