Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 September 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. A faint full-halo CME was observed on LASCO imagery beginning at 1255Z, although the CME is most likely backsided. New Region 667 (S09E76) is rotating onto the visible disk from the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled. On 03 September, isolated active conditions are possible due to a glancing blow from a CME shock associated with the M1.4 flare from Region 663 on the 31 August at 0538Z.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Sep 090
  Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep  100/110/110
  90 Day Mean        01 Sep 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  014/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Sep  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  005/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%15%
Minor storm01%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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