Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 September 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. A long duration B6.0
flare occurred at 02/0256 UTC which appears to be associated with
activity around the NW limb. Region 667 (S10E62) has an alpha
magnetic configuration and has grown slightly in white light
coverage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated periods of active
levels are possible on 03 September due to a CME observed on 31
August.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 094 Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 100/105/110 90 Day Mean 02 Sep 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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