Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 October 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A C9.9 flare occurred at 23/1654 UTC from Region 687 (N11E28). Region 687 also produced a C8.0 flare at 23/1922 UTC. Region 682 (S13W73) produced a low level C flare. New Region 691 (N16E69) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 687 may produce isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
Class M55%55%55%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Oct 132
  Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct  130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        23 Oct 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Oct  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  005/005-010/012-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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