Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 October 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. A M2.3 flare occurred at
24/2028 UTC from Region 687 (N12E15). Regions 682 (S12W86) and 691
(N15E59) have produced low level C-class flares. Region 682 has
rotated off the West limb. New Region 692 (S17E30) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar Activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class flares are possible from Region 687.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
increased from approximately 360 km/s to 500 km/s, most likely due
to a geoeffective coronal hole. A prolonged period of the
southward Bz component was responsible for the unsettled conditions
experienced.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a possibility for isolated
active periods on 25 and 26 October due to a possible glancing blow
from a CME observed on 22 October.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 135 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 010/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Tuesday, 8 October 2024
Double X-flares, glancing blow possible
Latest forum messages
"Sorry, you have been blocked" 2New satellites - Proba-3, PUNCH, SWFO-L1, GOES-U/19 19AR 13883 92Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1182Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1555
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 161.1 +7.2 |