Viewing archive of Monday, 15 November 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels today. Region 700 (N04W53) produced two C-class flares during the period, a C1.2 that occurred at 15/0626Z and a C1.5 occurring at 15/0925Z. Magnetic analysis indicates that the region continues to carry a beta-gamma classification while the sunspot area has more than doubled since yesterday. Regions 699 (S13W10) and 701 (S15E17) underwent a slight growth in magnetic structure although neither of these groups showed any appreciable change in sunspot coverage. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 700 has a slight chance of producing an isolated M-class flare based on the magnetic structure of the region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was slightly elevated today as the flux continues to drop to background levels from the activity that ended on 13 November.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Nov 106
  Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov  110/115/120
  90 Day Mean        15 Nov 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Nov  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  005/008-004/008-004/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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