Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 November 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 700
(N04W67) was limited to the production of lesser B and C-class
flares this period, the largest was a C1.4/Sf event that occurred at
16/0013Z. Sunspot area continues to grow as dominant penumbral
spots in both polarities increase in size. The beta-gamma magnetic
structure remains intact. A CME was observed by SOHO/LASCO imagery
on the northeast solar limb which appears to have been from a
back-sided source region. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit continues settling to background levels from the event that
ended on 13 November.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 108 Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 115/120/125 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 004/008-004/008-002/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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