Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 November 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. Region 700 (N04W80) was in steady decay today as it began to rotate off the west solar limb. Flare production was limited to B-class flare activity today. Region 702 (S10W27) is a rapidly developing magnetic beta group that was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today. An isolated active period was observed at middle latitudes between 17/0600 and 0900Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 18 and 19 November. Isolated active conditions may occur on 20 November in response to an anticipated coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
Class M10%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Nov 105
  Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        17 Nov 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Nov  004/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  004/008-002/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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