Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 November 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 700 (N04W93) produced the largest flare of the period, an impulsive C3 x-ray flare occurring at 18/1456Z. No sunspots are currently visible as this region has rotated off the west solar limb. Regions 703 (N13E46) and 704 (N12E75) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions may be seen at higher latitudes on 20 and 21 November due to coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Nov 104
  Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        18 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Nov  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  002/005-008/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%30%
Minor storm01%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

All times in UTC

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