Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C2/Sf flare at 08/1959Z. This flare was associated with a 14
degree filament eruption from a sigmoid region on SXI imagery near
N01W07. A Type II radio sweep (808 km/s) also accompanied this
flare. Region 710 (S08E47) was numbered today and produced a C1
flare at 08/0414Z. No other significant activity was noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. An isolated C-class flare is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. A weak high speed stream, which began on 06 December
continues to decline, ending the period near 450 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 082 Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 080/080/085 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 009/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 010/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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