Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Two CME's were observed
on LASCO imagery, one at 18/0936Z and the other at 18/1024Z. These
CME's were most likely farside events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a small chance for C-class flares from Regions 712 (S10E37)
and 713 (S10E59).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with isolated minor
storming at high latitudes. Active to minor storm periods due to
the continued influence of a geoeffective high speed coronal hole
stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from approximately
640 km/s to 530 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 091 Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 090/095/100 90 Day Mean 18 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 009/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 006/010-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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