Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 December 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Two CME's were observed on LASCO imagery, one at 18/0936Z and the other at 18/1024Z. These CME's were most likely farside events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a small chance for C-class flares from Regions 712 (S10E37) and 713 (S10E59).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with isolated minor storming at high latitudes. Active to minor storm periods due to the continued influence of a geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from approximately 640 km/s to 530 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Dec 091
  Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec  090/095/100
  90 Day Mean        18 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  009/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Dec  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  006/010-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/10/31X2.0
Last M-flare2024/11/05M2.6
Last geomagnetic storm2024/10/12Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
September 2024141.4 -74.1
November 2024215.8 +74.4
Last 30 days161.1 +7.2

This day in history*

Solar flares
12013X4.93
21998X1.21
32014X1.14
42003M7.6
52004M5.72
DstG
12023-172G3
21991-92G2
31986-74G1
41959-73G1
51993-71G1
*since 1994

Social networks