Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 713 (S08W06) produced
several C-class events. The largest was a C5 at 23/1008 UTC. This
flare was optically correlated with the GOES X-ray imager data.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible on 26 December with the affects from a recurrent coronal
hole.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 096 Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 23 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 012/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 010/010-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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