Viewing archive of Friday, 22 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 22 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. A new
region rotating around the east limb at S05 may have been the source
of a CME observed off the southeast limb at around 22/0630Z. The few
sunspot groups on the visible disk are small and stable, and
exhibited no significant changes or activity this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. A new region rotating around the east limb at S05 may
elevate activity levels slightly on 24 and 25 April.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods. A
weak disturbance is expected on 22 and 23 April as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 077 Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 080/085/085 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 015/020-010/020-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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