Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 26 2250 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE
has decreased slightly from approximately 680 km/s to 630 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 27 March. On 28 and 29 March,
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected as the coronal hole high
speed stream moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 078 Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 26 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 015/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 010/015-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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