Viewing archive of Friday, 25 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 25 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 745 (N12E03) produced a
C1/Sf flare at 24/2344Z. This region is in a slow growth phase with
minor magnetic mixing. No other significant activity was observed on
the solar disk or limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. An isolated C-class flare is possible from Region 745.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with isolated minor storm
periods at high latitudes. The most disturbed geomagnetic conditions
followed short periods of southward IMF Bz to near -10 nT. A high
speed coronal hole stream rotated into a geoeffective position over
the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed began the period at just over
400 km/s, but increased to near 700 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to active levels. Minor storm periods
are possible at high latitudes on 26 March. Mostly quiet to
unsettled levels with just isolated active periods are expected on
27 and 28 March as the high speed solar wind stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 082 Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 25 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 010/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 012/020-010/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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