Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 March 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 27 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 745 (N12W24) continues to slowly decay. No significant activity was observed on the solar disk or limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. Just two small and magnetically simple sunspot groups exist on the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. Solar wind speed, which is elevated due to a high speed coronal hole stream, is in decline. The wind speed began the period near 650 km/s, but gradually weakened to around 550 km/s. The greater that 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three days. Isolated active periods are possible on 28 March.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Mar 078
  Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        27 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  012/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Mar  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  010/015-008/012-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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