Viewing archive of Monday, 25 April 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 25 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. New Region 756 (S06E68) is rotating into view on the southeast limb. Although this region's close proximity to the limb is hindering the analysis, it does appear to be a moderate size sunspot group, with initial measurements of over 400 millionths in white light area. The CME activity on 22 April may have been associated with this region; however, activity in the past 48 hours was limited to occasional B-class flares. No other activity of note occurred this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 756 has the potential to produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at high latitudes. The weak high speed stream in progress since 23 April is declining. Solar wind speed ended the period at around 480 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Apr 086
  Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr  090/100/100
  90 Day Mean        25 Apr 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  005/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Apr  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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