Viewing archive of Friday, 6 May 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 06 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 756 (S08W79) produced an M1 x-ray flare at 06/1128 UTC. This region continues to slowly decay. Region 758 (S07E23) generated a more significant flare, a C8/2f at 06/1705 UTC. Although smaller in x-ray output, this flare was of long-duration and associated with a type II sweep and an apparent Earth-directed CME. Both of these regions also produced smaller flares over the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. C-class activity is expected in Regions 756 and 758. Another small M-class flare is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A small Sudden Impulse (8 nT) was observed by the Boulder magnetometer at 08/1306 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. Increased activity is possible on 08 and 09 May in response to the CME discussed in Part IA. The field may also be affected by a coronal hole high speed stream beginning on 09 May.
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 May 110
  Predicted   07 May-09 May  105/095/090
  90 Day Mean        06 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 May  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  010/012-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%50%50%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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