Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 02 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 772 (S17E23)
continues to show a modest amount of magnetic complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a good chance of C-class activity from Region 772.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to mildly unsettled. The energetic
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through 05 June.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jun 093 Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 02 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 005/015-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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